Looking out of the caravan window I see a sunny blue sky interspersed with stratus cloud which would make for a great flying day, except for one thing. The ruddy wind is still buffeting and gusting making it highly inadvisable to take off in a microlight, or ULM, like 24ZN, let alone consider undertaking a flight such as the Channel crossing.
The reason is pretty clear – it’s our old enemy, the Jetstream, which is playing its usual destructive games through being far farther south than it ought to be at this time of the year, almost covering the whole of the UK, as the following image of its status this morning shows.
And the forecast is for the winds to strengthen yet again over the coming week-end making flights in light aircraft, in the south of the UK at least, virtually impossible and we can see why from the forecast for how the Jetstream will be lying across the country on Sunday, as shown below.
However, things are forecast to improve dramatically by Tuesday when I hope to be setting off on my flight to France in 24ZN with favourable winds the whole way down to the Dordogne. Here’s what the Jetstream is forecast to be looking like then.
You can see from the arrows on the isobars how the wind is expected to swing around creating the tailwind components that are forecast for that day and I hope that this will be so in reality. Here’s the picture as given by another independent forecast on windy.com, the web site to which I turn for my longer en-route forecasts.
To my untrained eye, the changes in the Jetstream that are forecast over the next few days look to be only slight and quite subtle and it’s a surprise to me that they could result in such a large change in the surface wind. However, I’m placing my trust in the meteorologists who have been running and refining their computer models over a great deal of time and are by now pretty confident in the forecasts that they produce. In any case, I have no option other than to go along with them, but it still doesn’t stop me from crossing my fingers in the meantime 😉