Will she, won’t she?

The container ship CMA CGM CEDRUS that is bringing my mini-excavator to Marseille was scheduled to arrive in Singapore on 30 January but as it did not leave Cai Mep in Vietnam until 29 January at 13.28 hrs local time that was impossible. Instead it arrived in Singapore one day late on 31 January at 0844 hrs.

It was originally scheduled to depart Singapore on 30 January (revised from 29 January) but actually left on 01 February at 06.41 hrs local. When I checked to see what was happening it had just cast off and was being tugged away from the port area.

So there has been one day’s slippage compared to the ship’s original schedule although at the time of typing this its ETA in Valencia, Spain remains unchanged as 26 February 15.00 hrs local. This is where it looks as though things are becoming a bit more complicated though.

As I understood it, the CMA CGM CEDRUS’s route from Singapore to Valencia was originally planned to be via the Cape of Good Hope. However, since the vessel left China, on 26 January the shipping companies began to again route traffic bound for southern Europe via the Suez Canal and it now looks as though this is the route that the CMA CGM CEDRUS will take.

However, it looks as though things are not as simple as that. The wild card is the political situation in Iran and whether that will lead to an invasion by the United States and an upsurge in armed conflict in the Middle East. I’m wondering whether the management at CMA CGM (the French owners of the CMA CGM CEDRUS) are still considering their options because for the past several hours the vessel seems to be on a bearing that’s between the direct routes to the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope.

This could give the possibility of switching to either one within the next few hours so I’ll be checking again in the morning. On the other hand, the ship might just be heading for another unscheduled stop at Nacala, a city on the northern coast of Mozambique, the deepest natural port on the east coast of Africa, before continuing on around the Cape of Good Hope and thus avoiding the uncertainties arising from the Iranian situation.